Beginner’s
Luck (Function of Regression to the Mean) by Brenda Antrim. Rated NC17.
No copyright infringement intended.
Spoilers for Numb3rs ep. 8: Sniper Zero.
~ PR[S(n)/n - MU > k] -> 0 ~
He’d known Agent
Edgerton was going to be a pain in the neck from the moment he laid eyes on
him. Charlie fidgeted at the way the
man’s eyes seemed to look at him, then through him, dismissing him as a
neophyte, a mere distraction to those whose responsibility it was to solve the
case and stop the sniper.
As the
investigation went on, there was less dismissal and more intensity in those
eyes, but Charlie had never liked feeling inferior, and the fact that this man
knew so much, both experientially and viscerally, about being a sniper, gave
Charlie a massive inferiority complex.
It also
didn’t help with his tendency to second-guess his own conclusions. Particularly with the nagging feeling he
couldn’t shake that he was missing something.
Things came
to a head as he stood running probabilities through his mind, looking for a
commonality, a clue, a connection.
Edgerton made the strong case that there were variables Charlie would
never understand until he, himself, had experienced the mechanics of sniper
shooting. Variables he’d never knew
existed.
Heart
rate. Adrenaline surge. Perspiration.
Breathing pattern.
His own
breathing pattern was disrupted, and his heart rate elevated, unexpected so, as
Edgerton moved close beside him in the window to illustrate some of the
physiological effects of sniper attack preparation and execution.
He smelled
good.
So,
distraction was yet another variable to introduce into the equation. Although his probably wasn’t the same as that
felt by the actual serial sniper. At least
he hoped not.
~ PR[S(n)/n - MU > k] -> 0 ~
That night
Charlie dreamt of things and in ways he hadn’t for years. When he got up in the morning he balled the
sheets up and shoved them to the bottom of the hamper. He’d have to make sure he did the laundry. He was a grown man. He didn’t need his dad to see evidence of the
fact that one irritating special agent could turn him into a kid having wet
dreams again.
~ PR[S(n)/n - MU > k] -> 0 ~
In the end,
it was simplicity, not additional variables, that defined the pattern. Still, Edgerton was right, and Charlie told
him so… well, Charlie told him he wasn’t completely wrong.
As he told
Don, it was as important for Charlie to understand the mechanics of the
sniper’s acts as it was for Don to understand the psychology. Not as important, actually, since Don was the
lead investigator and drove the investigation while Charlie was simply an
advisor giving hints on possible placement of future sniper attacks, but still,
the comparison was apropos. So Charlie
bullied, or perhaps wheedled, Don until his big brother gave in and took him to
the shooting range.
It was as
loud and freakish and uncomfortable as Charlie expected, although it certainly
provided him with a better understanding of the ‘rush’ to which Edgerton had
alluded. Charlie couldn’t believe the
way his hands shook, or the grin he couldn’t suppress when he made quite a good
shot, or the odd compulsion he felt to do it again. Or the erection he carefully hid from Don,
bouncing on the balls of his feet and shoving his hands deep in his pockets to
keep the pressure of his jeans zipper off his groin.
Don thought
once was enough, and was unhappy about even that single visit. Charlie wanted to do it again. Partially to see if it was skill rather than
a function of regression to the mean that resulted in such a good shot. Partially to see if it was still a rush. The addictive nature of shooting could in
itself be a variable, and including it in his calculations required further
study.
He tried
explaining this to Edgerton. He’d driven
over to the man’s hotel, knocked on his door, and when Edgerton answered, he’d
tried to explain.
Edgerton
watched him the entire time he babbled.
He didn’t blink once. When
Charlie finally wound himself into a verbal knot and resorted to looking up
through his curls at Edgerton in the least threatening manner he could,
Edgerton finally blinked.
“I’ll take
you back to the shooting range,” he said, pulling the door shut behind him.
That hadn’t
been as difficult as Charlie expected.
As they walked out to Edgerton’s rental car, Charlie tagging along at
Edgerton’s heels, he could have sworn he heard Edgerton say, “If it turns you
on that much, I can’t wait to see it.”
But when they got to the car, Edgerton looked as nonchalant and
disinterested as he had since Charlie first met him.
He must
have misheard.
Unfortunately.
~ PR[S(n)/n - MU > k] -> 0 ~
The range
was deserted when they got there.
Edgerton had a key, and Charlie raised an eyebrow at that.
“Range
master’s an old friend. Plus, I have
permission from the field office. Need
to keep my rating up.”
That made
sense. Charlie took the ear protectors
Edgerton offered and started to put them on.
Edgerton held up a hand to stop him and Charlie gave him an inquisitive
look.
“Before you
handle the rifle, I want to talk you through some things. Help get you in the mind-set.”
“Oh, that
would be great!” Charlie beamed at him
then trotted over to take his place along the wall in the target area. Edgerton was a step behind him, watching
again, only blinking more this time.
“That would help. I told Don it
was the mechanics I was interested in, and it is, really, but since this is a
complex case, and motivation combines with skill level along with several other
factors to determine outcome, the more I understand the situation from the
sniper’s perspective the better able I’ll be to determine a pattern to his
behavior and predict possible future outcomes.”
Edgerton
cleared his throat. He blinked several
times, then slowly smiled at Charlie.
It was a
completely new expression, one Charlie hadn’t seen before, and it made
Charlie’s stomach melt.
It also
made other parts of him harden up, a lot, so he quickly turned toward the
target to cover evidence of his inappropriate reaction to Edgerton’s
unexpectedly sexy smile. It was
Charlie’s turn to clear his throat.
“So, uhm,
what do we, ah, do?” he asked, his voice a little lower than usual.
Expecting
Edgerton to stand next to him, as Don had done, Charlie was unnerved to find
Edgerton standing behind him, instead.
The difference in their respective height allowed Edgerton to see just
over Charlie’s head, and the additional centimeters in reach allowed him to
align his arms along Charlie’s, directing his stance next to the rifle.
Charlie
felt like he was being engulfed by Edgerton.
It wasn’t unpleasant, far from it, but it was certainly
distracting. So was the way Edgerton’s
voice purred in his ear as he went on about control and patience and perfect
moments and time slowing down. So
distracting, in fact, that Charlie couldn’t hear anything but that rumbling
purr in his ear, couldn’t feel anything but the warmth of Edgerton’s body
blanketing his, and couldn’t concentrate on anything but the rush of his own
pulse in his ears and the way his palms were sweating and the fact that he was
so hard he couldn’t think straight.
The purr
broke, and Edgerton leaned even closer, whispering, “You have to watch out for
those distractions.”
Charlie closed
his eyes and shivered. Then Edgerton
dipped his head and licked Charlie’s neck.
It was a very good thing Charlie wasn’t actually holding the rifle or the
rounds firing as the result of his fingers clenching would have ripped the roof
off the range.
Edgerton
dropped his left arm away from Charlie’s arm and ran his hand around Charlie’s
waist, down his stomach, then over the bulge at the front of his jeans, where
he let his fingers gently press. Charlie
nearly swallowed his tongue.
“Tell me
you don’t want this and we’ll both walk away, right now,” Edgerton whispered
again, his breath against damp skin making Charlie shiver again.
“No,”
Charlie forced out. When Edgerton began
to draw away, Charlie yelped, “I mean no, don’t stop!” and grabbed Edgerton’s
hand, clamping it back around his erection where it belonged. “Don’t stop,” he repeated, less loudly but
with no less emphasis.
Edgerton
didn’t. Things got a little fuzzy after
that, mainly because Charlie was dizzy with arousal and his mind wasn’t
functioning at full capacity, but moments strung together like a chain in his
mind, and those moment stood out with startling clarity in his memory
afterward.
The heat of
Edgerton’s hands as they slid under his shirt and pulled it up over his head,
then the strength in those hands as they rubbed across his chest, lulling him
back against Edgerton’s chest. More
licking along the side of his neck, then along his shoulder, and biting, too,
and it was a very good thing the range was closed, because as loudly as Charlie
was moaning, if anyone else had been around, emergency medical responders would
have already been on the scene to help whomever was dying.
Then there
was the rough texture of the wood against his back as Edgerton turned him
around, and the first taste of Edgerton’s mouth, coffee and sugar, he must have
had chocolate for dessert, and he sucked on Charlie’s tongue like it was
candy. More heat, from those hands, as
they unfastened his jeans and pushed them down, then that mouth was moving
away, and Charlie had to moan again, because the licking and the biting were
but a prelude to the feast Edgerton made of his body.
By the time
Edgerton made it to Charlie’s erection it was a good thing there was a wall
behind him and a head full of hair to hang onto in front of him because
Charlie’s knees had turned to water. He
looked down to watch his cock moving into and out of Edgerton’s mouth and
nearly came from the sight of it, the concentration on Edgerton’s face, the
distention of the mouth around him, the way the movement of throat muscles felt
around the head of his cock, the grip clamped against his thighs, holding him
steady.
Then Edgerton opened his eyes.
That
watchful look was back, burning stronger than ever, and Charlie couldn’t look
away. He wondered, suddenly, if this was
what Edgerton had been thinking when he watched Charlie the last few days,
silently, not measuring and finding him wanting, but scrutinizing and wondering
about taste, texture, temperature… the thought tipped him over the edge.
He tried to
give warning, a strangled sound that made no sense, one enervated shove against
the top of Edgerton’s head to try to let him know what was about to come, but
he didn’t have the energy. From the
intensity in Edgerton’s eyes and the way he leaned forward, swallowing Charlie
down until his chin was nudging at Charlie’s balls, the warning was
unnecessary. Edgerton took everything
Charlie gave, then held him upright against the wall to clean up everything he
missed.
By the time
he finished with his tongue-bathing, Charlie was past the moaning stage and
into whimpering. Edgerton licked his way
back up Charlie’s torso and chest, along his throat, pausing to leave a
lingering biting kiss there, before diving back into Charlie’s mouth.
Charlie got
enough energy to lift his hands to Edgerton’s shoulders, to cant his hips into
the erection that was bumping against him, to rub the length of his body
affectionately against the one leaning over him. When he finally got his breath back, he
tilted his head and looked up at Edgerton.
Swollen lips and half-closed eyes suited him well.
Bucking up
against Edgerton’s erection, just enough to make him groan, Charlie asked,
“What will we do about that?”
“I want to fuck
you,” Edgerton told him, the quiet tone an erotic counterpoint to the blunt
words.
“Right,”
Charlie managed to get out on the third try.
He had a feeling his eyes were about to pop out of his face.
“But I
don’t think you’re ready for that yet,” Edgerton continued with a wicked grin
that promised further exploration in future meetings. “So how about this…”
He pulled
Charlie’s hand down and wrapped it around his cock. It didn’t feel all that different than
Charlie’s, a little hotter perhaps, a little longer, not quite as thick. Uncut.
The skin moved, the length jumped under his hand, and his fingers
tightened instinctively. Edgerton
covered Charlie’s hand with his own and began to move it, rubbing, pulling
gently, down, then back up, a little tighter around the head, pressing a little
at the base.
Charlie
leaned up for another kiss as they worked together, the movement of tongues
echoing the motion of hands on cock.
Edgerton’s other arm wrapped around Charlie’s waist, holding them close,
stroking his hip, as Charlie dropped his free hand down to gently rub along
Edgerton’s balls, encouraging him on.
All too soon Edgerton bit off a curse against Charlie’s mouth and
shuddered, thrusting into Charlie’s hand as he came. Charlie could feel the tension melting out of
the muscular frame leaning against him and returned the favor from earlier,
holding Edgerton until the shuddering passed and he could stand on his own.
“So,” he
finally said, as Edgerton nuzzled against his neck again, “I’m assuming from
your earlier comment that my potential readiness is acceptable and there will
be some opportunity for future… carnal expressions?” He felt like an idiot as soon as he said
it. Edgerton smiled against his skin,
making him shiver again.
“If you’d
like,” Edgerton said, then bit his neck gently and sucked at the bite until
Charlie was squirming against him, panting raggedly.
“God, yeah,
I’d like,” Charlie got out, then dragged Edgerton back into another deep kiss.
When
Edgerton got his mouth back, he grinned down at Charlie and said, “Shall we
continue this back at my hotel room?”
Charlie
never dressed faster in his life. As
they left the range and got in the car, he asked, “Does that mean the future is
now?”
Edgerton
grinned, and said, “The future is what you make it.”
Boy, was it
ever.
~ PR[S(n)/n - MU > k] -> 0 ~
His dad was
still up when Charlie finally got home, so he didn’t have to try to sneak
in. Just as well since he hadn’t done
much sneaking and wasn’t very good at it.
His dad looked up, a vaguely hopeful expression on his face.
“Have a
good time on your date?”
Charlie
grinned, hoping it wasn’t as much a smirk as it felt. “No date, just out… helping on a case.”
His dad’s face
fell, but Charlie smiled all the way up the stairs and into bed. And he kept smiling. For days.
Even after Edgerton shot the sniper to save Charlie’s life.
Later that
night, Charlie thanked him.
Effusively. And thoroughly.
Supporting
Bernoulli's theorem (a principle of probability stating that the sequence xn/n
tends to p where the random variables xn have common mean p, implying that the
relative frequency of an event of probability p tends to p as the number of
trials tends to infinity)[1],
popularly interpreted as the empirical law of averages, each time they met the
resulting sex was kind of spectacular.
Charlie was glad this particular mean of performance was so damned high.
After all,
there was no such thing as luck.
Just
practice.
END
[1] Explanation of Law of Large Numbers (Bernoulli's theorem).
Let X(r) be a sequence of mutually independent random variables with a common distribution. If the expectation MU = E(X(r)) exists then: PR[{(X(1)+X(2)+..+X(n)}/n - MU > k] -> 0 as n -> infinity for any k>0 If S(n) = X(1)+X(2)+....+X(n) and if the variance is VAR(X) then by Chebyshev's inequality: PR[S(n)>t] <or= nVAR(X)/t^2 For t = kn the right hand side tends to 0 and so: PR[S(n)>kn] -> 0 PR[S(n)/n > k] -> 0 PR[S(n)/n - MU > k] -> 0 Which is the condition we wished to prove.
As per http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/52154.html